China Northern Rare Earth's H1 performance soars, "igniting" rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks. China Northern Rare Earth and Jingyuntong hit daily limit [SMM News]

SMM July 10 News:

China Northern Rare Earth's H1 performance is expected to surge by 1882.54% to 2014.71% YoY, boosting rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks. Coupled with the sustained high spot prices of rare earths and market optimism about future prospects, rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks saw significant gains on July 10. As of 11:10 on July 10, the rare earth permanent magnet concept index rose 2.04%, with individual stocks: China Northern Rare Earth and Jingyuntong hitting the daily limit, Jiuling Technology up 9.8%, and Zhongke Magnetic Industry, China Rare Earth, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Shenghe Resources among the top gainers.

News Highlights

[China Northern Rare Earth's H1 Performance Expected to Surge 1882.54% to 2014.71% YoY] China Northern Rare Earth issued a H1 2025 performance forecast on the evening of July 9, projecting preliminary net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a YoY surge of 1882.54% to 2014.71%. Excluding non-recurring items, net profit is expected to reach 880 million to 940 million yuan, up 5538.33% to 5922.76% YoY.

Ningbo Yunsheng stated on its investor interaction platform on July 9 that the company does not engage in direct rare earth export business. For NdFeB permanent magnet materials involving categories under export control regulations, the company applies to relevant authorities in accordance with national regulations and proceeds with exports only after obtaining permits.

Xiangming Smart responded to investor inquiries on its interaction platform on July 4, stating the company positions its products as high-efficiency and intelligent, with rare earth being a critical raw material for high-efficiency motors and componentized products. The company has incorporated rare earth materials into certain products.

[Zhenghai Magnetic Material: Obtained Rare Earth Export License with Steady Export Declaration Progress] On July 1, Zhenghai Magnetic Material indicated on its interaction platform that following the implementation of export control measures on medium-heavy rare earth items, the company promptly responded by actively advancing export declaration work in strict compliance with national regulations. As one of the early recipients of export licenses, the company maintains normal operations with steady export declaration progress and continuous approval of new export licenses. It remains in close communication with authorities, dynamically tracks policy changes, ensures compliant export operations, and fully safeguards stable business performance.

According to China Rare Earth Group's official WeChat account, on June 30, China Rare Earth Group convened its 5th 2025 Party Committee Theoretical Study Center Group (Expanded) Special Learning Seminar. The meeting emphasized integrating green development concepts throughout production, strategic planning, and reform processes, with sustained efforts in green mining, ecological restoration, energy conservation, process innovation, and other areas. It aims to establish a resource recycling system, improve long-term environmental governance mechanisms, optimize industrial structure, and accelerate the cultivation of a green rare earth industry system. The company has remained steadfast in serving national strategies, advancing carbon emission accounting across the entire rare earth industry chain and research on dual carbon pathways, while accelerating the R&D and application of rare earth functional materials.

[Xiamen Tungsten: Has obtained rare earth export licenses and conducted exports]On June 30, Xiamen Tungsten stated on its investor interaction platform that for products subject to rare earth export control categories, the company has sequentially obtained export licenses from relevant national authorities and commenced exports after receiving approvals.

[MOFCOM introduces approval status of rare earth exports to EU: Certain compliant applications have been approved]The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) held a routine press conference on the afternoon of June 26, where a reporter asked about the approval status of rare earth exports to the EU. MOFCOM spokesperson He Yadong stated: China has always attached great importance to maintaining the stability and security of global industrial and supply chains, and has been continuously expediting reviews of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations. A certain number of compliant applications have been legally approved, and approval processes for compliant applications will continue to be strengthened. China is willing to further enhance export control dialogues with relevant countries in this regard and actively promote convenient and compliant trade.

[JL MAG Rare-Earth: Has sequentially obtained medium-heavy rare earth export licenses covering US, Europe and Southeast Asia]JL MAG Rare-Earth disclosed in its investor relations activity record that following the implementation of export control measures for medium-heavy rare earth-related items, the company has conducted export declarations in accordance with national regulations and has sequentially obtained export licenses issued by national authorities, covering export regions including the US, Europe and Southeast Asia. The company is actively collaborating with world-renowned technology companies on research and capacity development for embodied robot motor rotors in the robotics sector, with small-batch deliveries already made.

[Shenghe Resources: Some products have obtained rare earth dual-use substance export licenses]When asked by an investor whether Shenghe Resources had obtained export licenses for rare earth dual-use substances issued by MOFCOM, Shenghe Resources stated on its investor interaction platform that the company strictly complies with national laws and regulations in conducting export license declarations for relevant products, with certain products having already obtained export approvals.

[Earth-Panda: Export business accounted for 31.98% of Q1 revenue]During a survey on June 26, 2025, Earth-Panda announced that it had obtained dual-use items and technology export licenses issued by MOFCOM, covering export regions including the US, Europe and ASEAN countries. In Q1 2025, the company's export revenue reached 110 million yuan, accounting for 31.98% of total revenue, with export revenue to the US reaching 36.177 million yuan, representing 10.61% of total revenue. The company maintains stable cooperation with China Northern Rare Earth and other rare earth suppliers to ensure a multi-channel and stable supply of rare earth raw materials, with raw material inventory maintained at around two months.

Spot Market

》Click to view SMM metal rare earth spot prices

》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices

Metal plants are experiencing severe losses in raw material costs, with limited market acceptance for high-priced oxides. As the peak period for magnetic material enterprises to restock collectively ended, the previously rising prices of Pr-Nd oxide pulled back slightly on July 10, with an average price of 453,500 yuan/mt on that day, a decrease of 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, representing a 0.11% drop. Previously, due to continuous procurement by major rare earth enterprises, influenced by news, some rare earth enterprises anticipated production cuts, and market concerns about oxide production cuts intensified. Additionally, downstream magnetic material enterprises' expectations for demand recovery at month-end continued to grow, driving the continuous rise in Pr-Nd oxide prices from July 3 to July 8.

Reviewing the rare earth price trends in the first half of this year, it can be seen that the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on June 30 was 444,500 yuan/mt, compared to an average price of 398,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, representing an 11.68% increase in the first half of this year. At the end of last year, the rare earth market was driven by multiple positive news, akin to receiving a boost, causing rare earth prices to rise rapidly. Especially before the Chinese New Year, the price of Pr-Nd oxide once surged to 415,000 yuan/mt, representing an approximately 4.3% increase compared to the New Year's Day period. The festive atmosphere of the Chinese New Year seemed to have infected the rare earth market, with post-holiday bullish sentiment remaining high. Downstream procurement demand was also very active, and this robust demand further fueled the surge in rare earth prices. However, since late February, with the resumption of work by magnetic material enterprises, the number of new orders did not meet expectations, causing rare earth prices to pull back slightly, as if injecting a touch of calm into the overheated market. The rare earth market in March appeared somewhat mediocre. Without the intervention of new influencing factors, rare earth prices only fluctuated within a relatively small range, showing a fluctuating rangebound trend. By April, rare earth prices dropped rapidly, and the market seemed to enter a brief cooling-off period. However, by late April, with procurement and restocking by major customers and the delivery of long-term agreement orders, rare earth prices were boosted again, showing an upward trend. In May, with the superposition of various factors, rare earth prices generally continued their upward trend, and the market also showed a certain level of activity. However, entering June, rare earth prices began to stabilize, with no significant fluctuations. The reason behind this is that the market has entered a situation of weak supply and demand, with a stalemate formed in the game between upstream and downstream, making it difficult for prices to undergo significant changes.

Institutional Voices

GF Securities believes that, amid the uncertainty of tariff policies, China's rare earth mining quotas are expected to be managed more strictly, and the strategic value of rare earth permanent magnets will continue to grow.

Guotai Haitong Securities reviewed the rare earth sector's performance from 2020 to 2021 and found that the stock price increases in the rare earth sector generally fell into three stages: (1) Confirmation of the bottom of commodity prices and repair of forward valuations. (2) Excess profits digest valuations, with leading enterprises in the industry growing alongside orders. (3) A surge in market sentiment, accelerated price increases, and a broad-based rally in the sector. Currently, the sector is in the second stage, awaiting a resonance in price increases in both domestic and overseas markets. Since the increase in rare earth commodity prices has been relatively small since February 2025, the overall sector has been slowly rising. However, with the subsequent transmission of overseas restocking demand and the arrival of the peak season for domestic NEVs, rare earth prices are expected to continue rising, driving the sector towards the third stage (i.e., a concurrent increase in commodity prices and stock prices). As the price center of rare earths rises, domestic rare earth magnetic material enterprises are expected to experience a double boost in performance and valuations, with leading enterprises in resources and magnetic materials being preferred.

Guotou Securities' research report points out: The growth rate of supply quotas is slowing down, and the future demand for permanent magnets is promising. On April 4, 2025, export controls were implemented on medium-heavy rare earths, restricting the export of seven categories of items, including dysprosium and terbium, triggering panic in overseas supply chains. European prices for dysprosium and terbium surged, with the price spread between domestic and overseas markets exceeding threefold. As magnetic material enterprises gradually obtained export licenses in May, exports gradually resumed, and the price of Pr-Nd oxide rose mildly. Currently, the industry chain is awaiting the implementation of quotas. Guotou Securities expects that the YoY growth rate of rare earth quotas will slow down in 2025. On the demand side, there has been a sustained increase in demand for NEVs, wind power, home appliances, etc. It is expected that humanoid robots will enter mass production in the short term, rapidly becoming an important application area for high-performance NdFeB. Currently, leading magnetic material enterprises have already begun supplying orders. With the continuous growth in demand, the supply and demand of Pr-Nd may improve. Guotou Securities expects that there will be a demand gap in the global Pr-Nd oxide market in the future, and Pr-Nd prices are expected to continue rising. With the gradual restoration of exports, the price spread between domestic and overseas medium-heavy rare earths is expected to narrow, and there is optimism about the price increases of domestic dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide.

Guoyuan Securities points out that, influenced by various factors such as global geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and policies in some countries, there has been a shortage in the supply side of some metals, exacerbating market demand sentiment. Cobalt prices have performed well in the past two weeks. Overseas, Congo announced a temporary ban on cobalt exports, with the supply side continuing to tighten. Domestically, China's rare earth control and export policies continue to be updated. Attention should be paid to the divergence in rare earth price trends. Recently, it is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in precious metals and rare earths.

Dongguan Securities pointed out that at the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce on June 26, the spokesperson stated: China has always attached great importance to maintaining the stability and security of the global industrial and supply chains. It has continuously accelerated the review of export license applications related to rare earths in accordance with laws and regulations, and has approved a certain number of compliant applications. It will continue to strengthen the approval process for compliant applications. China is willing to further strengthen communication and dialogue with relevant countries on export controls and actively promote convenient and compliant trade. Currently, export demand is gradually recovering, and emerging fields such as humanoid robots are opening up growth space for rare earths. In the medium to short term, the rare earth industry's prosperity rebound continues to be promising.

Oriental Securities stated that in the medium term, benefiting from the continuous optimization of the rare earth industry's supply structure, upstream smelting and processing enterprises, due to the scarcity of quotas, are expected to dominate the profit distribution in the industry chain, achieving high-quality development with controllable product quantities, mild price increases, and steady profit growth. There is a significant cognitive gap in the market regarding this, and it is recommended to pay attention to leading global rare earth industry chain groups.